- Bitcoin typically bottoms 12 to 13 months after new all-time highs.
- Bitwise reckons there’s eight months of slumping prices left.
- But there’s a paradox at play.
Bitcoin could have eight more months of declining prices ahead — unless the market gets there first.
That’s the paradox Bitcoin investors are facing, according to Bitwise Europe’s latest market analysis. The traditional four-year cycle framework, which many market watchers swore was over, suggests Bitcoin won’t find a bottom until late 2026, roughly 12 months after its October 2025 peak.
But that timeline has become so widely accepted that it may undermine itself.
“This expectation has become deeply embedded in investor consensus,” André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise. “The eight-month horizon now appears somewhat consensus-heavy.”
Dragosch’s thesis is that when too many investors agree on a set timeline, markets often move faster than expected as sophisticated traders position themselves ahead of the crowd.
The analysis offers a sobering thought for traders — as well as the some 200 digital asset treasuries that bet their companies’ future on the promise of Bitcoin’s price reaching new records — that hoped that Bitcoin’s near 50% collapse from its October all-time high was the worst of it.
Wait until October
Since inception in 2009, Bitcoin has followed a four-year boom-bust cycle that’s tied to its halving events, which cut miner rewards in half every four years.
And over time, that pattern has remained remarkably consistent. Bitcoin peaks between 12 to 18 months after the halving, then takes another year to find a bottom before the next bull market kicks in again.
October 2025 marked the peak of this cycle when Bitcoin hit all-time highs of around $126,000. Using the traditional framework, that suggests a bottom should arrive around October 2026.
Today, the top crypto trades at nearly a 50% discount.
“The recent market top conformed closely to the traditional four-year cycle template,” Dragosch wrote.
Front-running Bitcoin
For Bitwise, if enough investors believe in the eight-month timeline, they may start buying earlier to position themselves ahead of the bottom.
That means that everyone waiting for October 2026 might create the bottom in June or July instead as early movers jump in before the consensus trade gets crowded.
“This divergence raises the possibility that the traditional four-year timing heuristic may be front-run,” Dragosch wrote.
Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.
