- XRP has a lot going for it.
- So why don’t bettors like its chances?
Bettors don’t like XRP’s chances.
Polymarket punters bet that the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency will end up trading at a lower price on May 31 than it did on May 1.
A bet on the prediction market gives XRP a 59% chance that it will trade below $2.19 at the end of the month.
Another bet tracks what prices bettors are wagering XRP will hit in May. That prediction market’s most popular bet gives XRP an 82% chance of dropping to $2.00. The second most popular bet suggests a 65% chance that the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency will hit $1.90 in May.
The bearish bets come as XRP’s price has slumped just under 37% since its January $3.31 high to $2.10. The plunge coincided with a 20% drop in the global cryptocurrency market, which shaved $800 billion off of its total value.
Trump slump
In April, the violent fall saw crypto exchange Coinbase warn that it’s seeing the early signs of a crypto winter.
Other risk-on assets, such as equities, have also been caught in the downturn. The S&P 500 index is down about 6.6% since US President Donald Trump took office.
The plunge has reconfirmed just how vulnerable digital currencies are to the trade war unleashed by Trump. While he maintains that everything’s OK, market watchers warn that his policies may trigger a recession.
Bullish bets
On the flipside, XRP does have plenty going for it.
Polymarket punters expect the US Securities and Exchange Commission to approve a slew of spot XRP exchange-traded funds, which could trigger a $8 billion trading bonanza. Bettors give them a 73% chance of being approved this year.
XRP’s fortunes are intimately linked to Ripple. The company’s founders developed the cryptocurrency, and its RippleX team oversees the development of the XRP Ledger. The network has been open source since 2015.
Ripple uses XRP to facilitate cross-border payments.
On March 31, the business held close to 4.6 billion XRP, plus 37.1 billion that are subject to on-ledger escrow, according to Ripple’s Q1 XRP Markets Report. Combined, that’s about 41% of the max supply, worth about $88 billion in today’s prices.
Ripple has scored several wins lately. The SEC has dropped its case against the company, and Ripple recently announced plans to acquire prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25
A bet on prediction market Kalshi gives XRP a 57% chance of being the cryptocurrency with the highest return to its investors in 2025.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 0.2% over the past 24 hours to trade at $94,002.
- Ethereum is down 1% to trade at $1,787.
What we’re reading
- Litecoin ETF approval chances spike ahead of key SEC ruling ― DL News
- Welcome to Sam Altman’s Orb Store — Wired.
- Michael Saylor Copycats Rush to Win the Solana Rat Race. Can Lightning Strike Twice?― Unchained
- What you missed this week ― Milk Road
- Hacker behind $190m DeFi exploit from 2022 arrested in Israel ― DL News
Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
