Carney has never been this close to winning Canada’s election

Prime Minister Mark Carney has never been this close to winning against his pro-Bitcoin rival Pierre Poilievere in Canada’s upcoming election.

That’s according to a bet on crypto prediction market Polymarket where punters give Prime Minister Carney a 79% chance of winning the vote. The key deciding factor among voters: who can best defend Canada against the threat from US President Donald Trump.

“We believe in international co-operation,” Carney said in a video shared on X. “We believe in the free and open exchange of goods, and services, and ideas. And if the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will.”

The Economist’s latest polling averages give Carney a 86% chance of winning and Poilievre a 13% chance.

Carney’s lead surged as Trump slammed several countries with sweeping tariffs on Wednesday.

A majority of voters, or 55%, say his Liberal Party will be best suited to handle the trade war between Canada and the US, while 30% said the same about the Conservatives, according to a mid-March poll from the Angus Reid Institute.

Conservative Party Leader Poilievre has also distanced himself from the US president. He said that it’s time to “stand up to Trump from a position of strength.”

When Trump said that Poilievre was “not MAGA,” in reference to his “Make America Great Again” slogan, the Conservative Party leader was quick to note the comment.

Crypto views

The two also have expressed opposing views on the crypto industry.

Poiliever is a long-time Bitcoin advocate. He has pledged to transform Canada into the “blockchain capital of the world,” and has opposed the creation of central bank digital currencies.

Those stances have drawn comparisons with Trump, who has voiced similar views. In one of his first actions as president, Trump signed a sweeping executive order that demanded an overhaul of the US’ crypto policies and banned the creation of a digital dollar.

Carney has been more sceptical in the past. He has dismissed Bitcoin as a poor store of value and backed the creation of CBDCs.

To be sure, Carney’s platform for the upcoming election says that “Canada should lead the world in AI, tech, and digital industries.”

He has, however, remained relatively silent on these issues in recent years, so it’s unclear if he’s changed his position.

The prime minister’s office didn’t immediately reply to questions about his crypto stance.

It wouldn’t be the first time a politician changed his mind on crypto.

After all, Trump dismissed Bitcoin as “a scam against the dollar” in 2021 before flip-flopping into a full-on embrace of the sector ahead of the November US election.

The election will be held on April 28.

Update April 10: This story has been updated to more clearly reflect that Carney’s views on cryptocurrencies are not clear at this time.

Eric Johansson is DL News’ News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.