- More access will drive prices, said Standard Chartered.
- Less volatility as the ETF market matures will be a second factor, said head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick.
- The bank's pre-ETF launch prediction was so close that they could nail another one, said ETF expert Eric Balchunas.
Standard Chartered has a daring prediction for Bitcoin: half a million per coin by the end of Donald Trump’s second term.
How will it get there so soon?
More capital flowing into exchange-traded funds, and a friendlier regulatory environment, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a note to clients.
“Investor access will be the core driver of longer-term Bitcoin price appreciation,” wrote Kendrick, who said more participation has already begun.
He pointed out several bullish moves from Trump, including a potential digital asset stockpile.
The second leg to Bitcoin’s price rise will be declining volatility as ETF markets mature.
Mainlining hopium
A previous Standard Chartered forecast means Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas is giving its $500,000 price target the benefit of the doubt.
“Standard Chartered is mainlining the hopium again, says Bitcoin will hit $500k by end of Trump term,” Balchunas wrote on X. “To be fair, though, their crazy bitcoin ETF flow prediction was actually closer than we were, so who knows!”
In January 2024, just days before the Bitcoin ETF launched, Standard Chartered predicted that the new asset would reach between $50 billion and $100 billion in inflows.
Standard Chartered’s Kendrick noted that the ETFs posted $39 billion in total net inflows.
BlackRock, Pantera
Half a million dollars per coin is Standard Chartered’s most bullish prediction yet — highlighting optimism surrounding the ETF and Trump combination.
BlackRock’s Larry Fink recently touted a $700,000 price for Bitcoin, and Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead sees it topping $740,000.
Bitcoin ETFs closed out 2024 notching the best debut for an ETF in history.
Volatility matters
Kendrick predicts that rocky market swings will die down.
“As the ETF market matures by the end of 2025, we expect volatility to decline,” Kendrick wrote. Meanwhile, a buildout of the derivatives market — such as options trading — should add also to more stable prices.
“With volatility dropping Bitcoin’s share of an optimised two-asset portfolio with gold increases,” Kendrick said.
Trump effect
Kendrick also pointed out Trump’s “important steps” to improve crypto’s standing in the US — including the recent repeal of SAB 121, a custody policy hated by the industry, and a potential digital asset stockpile that could trigger more Bitcoin purchases.
Yesterday, Trump’s crypto and AI czar, David Sacks, vowed regulatory clarity for the industry, while Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Hester Peirce said her week-old “crypto task force” will consider allowing initial coin offerings, or ICOs.
Market movers
- Bitcoin is down 1.5% in the past 24 hours to $97,577.
- Ethereum is down 2.2% over the same period to $2,741.
What we’re reading
- Who is David Sacks? The Trump crypto czar and Elon Musk pal is about to lay out his plan — DL News
- Why now is the worst time to give up on crypto — Milk Road
- What you missed this week — Milk Road
- Ahead of Debanking Hearings, Industry Is Divided on Political Strategy — Unchained Crypto
- Ethereum’s price performance in three brutal charts — what you need to know — DL News
Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.