- It could be a long time before a Solana ETF is approved, a Sygnum Bank analyst says.
- A victory for former President Donald Trump in the US election may not seal the deal, either.
Asset managers VanEck and 21Shares just submitted new filings for their Solana spot ETFs, but bulls will probably have to wait a while before they can buy any.
“A Solana ETF is unlikely before 2026,” Katalin Tischhauser, Sygnum Bank’s head of investment research, told DL News.
The reasons: There is low demand for Solana ETFs among traditional investors, plus lengthy political and regulatory processes.
Since Bitcoin ETFs launched on January 10, the crypto market has added some $377 billion in value.
Analysts say the imminent launch of Ethereum spot ETFs could help keep the party going.
Anticipation is building Solana is the next crypto spot ETF in the US.
The asset’s relative infancy compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum could make an ETF approval challenging, though.
Political change
The increasing politicisation of crypto is one issue.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of Ethereum spot ETFs in May was likely due to crypto becoming an increasingly political issue ahead of the US’ November election.
A victory for former President Donald Trump may mean a more favourable regulatory environment for crypto.
“If Biden wins, [the Solana ETF applications are] likely dead on arrival. If Trump wins, anything [is] possible,” Balchunas said in a July 8 X post.
Tischhauser said that even if Trump wins, she would be surprised if Solana ETFs are any kind of urgent priority.
Instead, she said, the filings may indicate VanEck and 21Shares are generally more bullish on political change and its subsequent impact.
Unprecedented filings
Even if there’s political will, that doesn’t mean regulators will agree.
The Solana ETF filings were unprecedented because they came without a corresponding US-based Solana futures market.
The SEC has previously argued that no spot crypto ETFs can be listed on US exchanges until there is a highly correlated, regulated futures market for the corresponding asset.
That could change, Tischhauser said.
But there’s a problem.
The SEC is suing Coinbase and Binance. It alleges many of the crypto assets these exchanges offer are unregistered securities.
“Aspects around crypto exchange trading in the US would certainly need to be resolved first,” Tischhauser said.
Little demand
Weak demand for a Solana ETF among traditional investors may make fighting for an approval less of a priority among issuers.
In March, BlackRock head of digital assets Robert Mitchnick said that among the firm’s clients, Bitcoin was “overwhelmingly the number one focus.”
He added there was a little bit of demand for Ethereum, and very little for other crypto assets.
“Given Blackrock’s dominant market position, I take this read of client interest seriously,” Tischhauser said.
BlackRock has not filed for its own Solana spot ETF.
Tim Craig is a DeFi Correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at tim@dlnews.com.
