- Polymarket bets on a US recession in 2025 are at an all-time high.
- Jim Cramer warns of a setup similar to the 1987 market crash.
- Crypto markets have lost $80 billion since Wednesday.
Investors are bracing for what some fear could be a repeat of Black Monday, as markets reel from a brutal week marked by sharp losses and escalating tariff tensions.
On Friday, the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 5%, and the Dow plunged over 2,200 points, prompting comparisons to October 1987, when the market collapsed 22% in a single day.
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money, didn’t mince words. “This is a man-made obliteration,” he said during Friday’s show, warning viewers that the setup eerily resembles the three-day decline leading into the 1987 crash. “We’ll know by Monday.”
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman echoed the alarm, writing on X that he wouldn’t be surprised to see a presidential announcement Monday delaying the tariffs.
“The risk of not doing so is that the massive increase in uncertainty drives the economy into a recession, potentially a severe one,” he tweeted.
That fear is quickly becoming the consensus.
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, the odds of a US recession in 2025 surged to a new high of 62% today. That number was under 40% just days ago.
JPMorgan analysts say President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation, tipping the economy into a downturn. “This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession,” they warned.
The uncertainty has battered risk assets. Bitcoin is down 5% since Wednesday, while crypto markets lost $80 billion in value.
Still, some crypto watchers remain bullish. Arthur Hayes sees the Fed stepping in with liquidity, potentially sending Bitcoin to $250,000. Standard Chartered, even more optimistic, says $500,000 is possible before Trump leaves office.
Kalshi bettors are less convinced, giving just a 33% chance that Bitcoin breaks $125,000 this year.
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.
