- The pro-crypto regulatory shift has triggered a deluge of exchange-traded fund applications.
- ETF experts placed the highest odds for Litecoin, Dogecoin, XRP, and Solana.
- Prior to the election, odds for most new ETFs was below 5%.
Donald Trump’s new pro-crypto administration has fuelled a flurry of filings for crypto exchange-traded funds.
Which ones will get a green light from the Securities and Exchange Commission?
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas assigned 90% odds of approval for a Litecoin ETF in 2025.
In second place comes Dogecoin with 75%, followed by Solana with 70%, and XRP has a 65% likelihood.
Hoping to replicate Bitcoin’s wildly successful 2024 debut, fund managers from Grayscale to Bitwise have flooded the SEC with applications for new spot crypto funds.
The optimism stems from Trump’s arrival, which brought a number of crypto ally nominations to key policy positions, marking a shift from the previous administration.
These are the six potential new crypto ETFs coming to market.
Litecoin
The highest odds land in Litecoin’s favour.
That’s because the SEC likely views the asset as a commodity, which simplifies its regulatory path. The agency acknowledged Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust filing in late January, and a Canary Capital application on February 6.
“Litecoin ETFs now have all the boxes checked,” said Balchunas earlier this year. “With a new SEC sheriff in town, this could be the first altcoin ETF to hit the market.”
The SEC has an October 2nd deadline for approval.
Dogecoin
Crypto’s most beloved memecoin has the second highest chances of an ETF with a 75% odds of approval.
Similar to Litecoin, analysts are attributing the high likelihood to its commodity-like status.
Grayscale and Bitwise await SEC acknowledgement by February 14, and the agency has an October 18 deadline for approval.
Solana
Solana slides in third place with 70% approval odds.
A heavyweight lineup that includes applications from Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares signals strong institutional interest.
However, questions remain about its regulatory classification. The SEC under Gary Gensler previously categorised Solana as a security in ongoing lawsuits against major crypto exchanges.
“The lawsuits and stuff from the division of enforcement need to be cleared before they can approve a Solana ETF,” said Seyffart on February 6.
The SEC has an October 10 deadline.
XRP
Ripple’s XRP takes fourth place with 65% odds.
Even though five firms have applied for an XRP ETF — including Bitwise and WisdomTree — the asset has the tallest regulatory hurdle to overcome.
“Until that WHOLE mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome, you likely won’t see an ETF,” said Seyffart.
He’s referring to an ongoing legal battle between the SEC and XRP’s parent company Ripple. In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that the company’s institutional sales of XRP violated securities laws but its sales to retail investors did not constitute securities transactions.
JPMorgan sees more than $8 billion flowing into an XRP ETF.
The SEC has an October 17 deadline.
Polkadot
21Shares filed for a Polkadot ETF in late January.
The fund would trade on the Cboe BZX exchange, and Coinbase would serve as its custodian.
Seyffart said that its filing was met with scepticism from market watchers.
“This is up there with the most hate I’ve ever seen an ETF filing get,” he said, pointing out that 21Shares already offers a Polkadot ETP in Switzerland since 2021.
21Shares’ application has yet to be acknowledged, and the SEC still hasn’t set a deadline for its resolution.
HBAR
Hedera Hashgraph’s HBAR rounds out the list of potential new crypto ETFs.
Canary Capital applied for it on November 12, 2024.
However, for Bloomberg’s Balchunas, it doesn’t stand up to much scrutiny.
“Once every two years or so there is an ETF filing where I literally have to use Google to understand what it tracks,” he wrote in mid-November. “This was one of those times. The post-Trump spaghetti cannon in effect.”
The SEC still hasn’t acknowledged the filing, nor set a date for resolution.
Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.