- Circle stock will climb nearly 30%, says Bernstein.
- Analysts call Circle a "must-hold" in the stablecoin market.
- The Genius Act seen to accelerate stablecoin adoption in the US.
Circle shares will ride the inbound stablecoin boom to a near 30% increase over the next year, a $785 billion wealth manager predicts.
On Monday, Bernstein analysts gave the company’s stock CRCL a $230 price target, arguing that the firm’s prime position as the first publicly traded stablecoin issuer in the US will give it an advantage as stablecoins become mainstream.
“CRCL is a long-term must-hold as a stablecoin category leader and for investors wanting to be exposed to Circle’s long-term transformative payments’ story,” Gautam Chhugani and two other Bernstein analysts wrote.
The bullish call follows a blockbuster initial public offering, as well as US policymakers moving closer to passing landmark stablecoin legislation that would give companies like Circle a clearer path to mainstream growth.
The upshot?
The stablecoin supply is expected to increase by almost 1,500% over the next decade and reach $4 trillion as digital dollars move beyond crypto trading and into payments, remittances, and tokenised finance, Bernstein predicted.
IPO gains
Circle went public on June 5. Shares initially surged sevenfold to a price of nearly $265 in the weeks following their debut on the New York Stock Exchange. It now trades at $180.
Circle’s market cap has surged over 600% since its IPO to more than $40 billion.
It drew attention from analysts and market commentators, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who praised the business but cautioned that the valuation has become overheated.
“Circle’s a solid company, but the stock has gotten too hot for me,” Cramer said in June. “You’ll get a better opportunity simply by being patient.”
Despite Cramer’s concerns, Bernstein sees further room for gains as Circle capitalises on its early-mover advantage in stablecoins.
The analysts highlighted the company’s deep liquidity, regulatory head start, and partnerships with major platforms like Coinbase and Binance as competitive advantages that will be “hard to replicate.”
Bernstein projects that Circle will capture around 30% of the global stablecoin market.
Regulatory boon
Part of that growth hinges on the political momentum behind stablecoin regulation in the US.
The Genius Act, which sets new rules for dollar-backed stablecoins, passed with bipartisan support earlier this month and is now awaiting a vote in the House.
If enacted, the bill could pave the way for the broader adoption of regulated stablecoins such as USDC, marking a shift that crypto leaders have called a “once-in-a-generation platform change.”
Bernstein’s analysts described Circle as “best positioned” to benefit from that regulatory tailwind, though they noted that risks remain.
The company’s reliance on float income from USDC reserves means future revenue could face pressure from falling interest rates.
Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com
