Bitcoin’s breakout rally? Standard Chartered, Arthur Hayes, and six other experts weigh in

Bitcoin’s breakout rally? Standard Chartered, Arthur Hayes, and six other experts weigh in
MarketsSnapshot
Analysts discuss macro shifts that could fuel Bitcoin’s next breakout rally. Illustration: Andrés Tapia
  • Bitcoin’s sideways movement may end soon as macro conditions turn favourable.
  • Experts predict new highs, citing lower yields, institutional demand, and political shifts.
  • Analysts see Bitcoin hitting $125,000 by mid-year and $200,000 possible by December.

Bitcoin has been moving sideways the past few months but analysts say a breakout rally is just around the corner.

Market analysts expect this next leg up will be driven by improving macro conditions and shifting US policies under Donald Trump.

But that’s not the only catalyst.

Here’s what leading experts — including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Maelstrom’s Arthur Hayes, and others — are saying about Bitcoin’s next big move.

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick

Kendrick, who is the global head of digital assets research at UK bank Standard Chartered, sees Bitcoin heading toward $102,500 soon, driven by macro factors and political sentiment.

“We may be finally moving from bad Trump to good Trump as far as risk assets are concerned,” Kendrick noted in a February 13 update.

He cited an end to the Ukraine conflict as easing jitters and driving oil prices lower.

He also said drivers include Bitcoin’s resilience following stronger-than-expected US inflation data, and rising long-term Treasury yields versus short-term ones.

“A steeper yield curve, if backed up by higher term premium, may be another factor supporting Bitcoin prices,” Kendrick added.

Maelstrom’s Arthur Hayes

Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes is tracking Bitcoin through a different lens: Trump’s controversial memecoin, TRUMP.

“Trump checks the $TRUMP price as often as he checks the level of the S&P 500,” Hayes said in a recent blog post.

Hayes noted that $TRUMP is down 80% from its high, and Bitcoin has yet to retake $110,000 — a level reached at the peak of $TRUMP mania.

“If some policy that those in the political know believe will positively impact crypto, $TRUMP will surge well before the positive news is announced, and then Bitcoin will follow.”

BlackRock’s Larry Fink

The world’s largest asset manager is eyeing Bitcoin allocation at a sovereign level.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in January, Fink said sovereign wealth funds are considering allocating 2% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

“If everyone adopted that conversation, it would be $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 per Bitcoin,” Fink told Bloomberg News.

Derive’s Sean Dawson and Nick Forster

The probability of Bitcoin hitting $125,000 by mid-2025 has climbed to 44%, up from about 42%, according to Derive’s latest research from Sean Dawson.

Nick Forster estimated that Bitcoin has a 12% chance of reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and a 15% probability of surpassing $135,000 by the end of Q2.

The rising odds suggest that investors are increasingly pricing in a strong Bitcoin bull run throughout 2025.

David Brickell and Chris Mills

FRNT Financial’s David Brickell and analyst Chris Mills are sticking to their bullish thesis — Bitcoin’s biggest rally is still ahead.

“We remain on track for further Fed rate cuts amidst a broader global easing cycle and rising liquidity,” they wrote in their latest “Connecting the Dots newsletter.

Lower interest rates usually incentivise investors to bet on riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Trump’s administration, they argue, has a clear goal: lower yields, a weaker dollar, and a rising stock market — and now, a higher Bitcoin price.

“Trump is very clear on his goals, and alongside Bessent, has a plan to achieve those.”

Bitwise’s Jeff Park

For Bitwise’s Portfolio Manager Jeff Park, Bitcoin’s path forward all comes down to lower 10-year US Treasury yields.

“Trump wants one thing to protect his own bags, which is lower 10-year rates,” Park said in a recent podcast.

He explained that if Treasury yields decline as expected, risk capital will flood back into markets:

“Risk capital in the US will be on fire again because there’s now a wall of cash coming back into the market... It’s going to be great for Bitcoin.”

Crypto market movers

  • Bitcoin has gained 0.8% over the past 24 hours to trade at $96,760.
  • Ethereum is up 1.1% on the day to $2,690.

What we’re reading

Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.

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