- Most analysts are bearish in the short term.
- “Bitcoin goblin town incoming,” said Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes.
- Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting clobbered.
Where to next, Bitcoin?
Renewed interest from Donald Trump to impose tariffs on top US trading partners has erased 9% of crypto’s market value in the past 24 hours. Traders got liquidated to the tune of $1.5 billion over the same time period, forcing market watchers to consider where to place their bets.
“Bitcoin goblin town incoming,” said Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, Arthur Hayes on X on Monday, referring to crypto slang for rough times.
Many hedge funds that took long positions in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds while shorting CME futures are currently in profit, which they are likely to realise during US trading hours, he said.
“$70,000 I see you mofo!” said Hayes.
Here’s where other market watchers are saying the price will go.
André Dragosch, Bitwise: Down
A series of factors is pulling Bitcoin down, according to André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise.
“We have seen a tightening in financial conditions via higher yields and a stronger US Dollar since the Fed cut rates in September 2024,” he told DL News. Adding in the decline in global money supply, that combination “usually doesn’t bode well for Bitcoin.”
Still, this doesn’t mean the onset of a bear market as many argue, he said.
The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is drying up, there’s demand from institutions and corporations — with finance behemoth Citadel Securities announcing plans to become a crypto market maker — which should drive inflows into ETFs, Dragosch argued.
“The recent retracement is rather an interim bull market correction than the beginning of a bear market,” Dragosch told DL News.
Max Shannon, CoinShares: Down
“I’m bearish in the short term,” Max Shannon, research analyst at CoinShares, told DL News.
Shannon pointed to Trump’s tariff war against Canada and Mexico, along with weakening sentiment in crypto.
“Scare indicators (lower yield, lower oil prices, and a strong Japanese yen) are reading their ugly head again,” he said.
Does Bitcoin have a trip to $75,000 — the asset’s previous all time high — for Shannon? “It’s possible,” he said.
Carlos Guzman, GSR: Down
Guzman highlighted that despite the negative series of events anchoring crypto prices, there’s light at the end of the tunnel — the question is how long it will take to get there.
The analyst told DL News that improving regulatory clarity in the US, “new efforts” in tokenisation and stablecoins,” and broader institutional adoption will help turn the market around.
However, “the positive market catalysts we see will likely take a while to play out.”
Nansen Research: Down
As Bitcoin tumbled below $91,000, the Nansen Risk Barometer turned “Risk-off,” the research firm said. This comes after months being neutral since mid-November 2024.
Nansen analysts pointed to uncertainty around tariff policies as the main driver.
For the firm to start allocating capital to crypto again, they need for tariff fears to cool down, and “some reassurance that US growth is not slowing.”
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered: Down
“Do not buy the dip,” said Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at UK bank Standard Chartered, told investors on Tuesday.
Kendrick cautioned traders that Bitcoin might still have further downside to go, risking a move to the “low 80s,” as Bitcoin ETFs continue to suffer outflows.
That said, Standard Chartered analysts have previously predicted Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of year.
Stella Zlatareva, Nexo: Sideways
To be sure, not everyone is outright bearish.
“We anticipate a period of consolidation as inflation and trade policies evolve,” said Stella Zlatareva, editor of Nexo Dispatch.
Despite Bitcoin “recalibrating” below $90,000 amid post-US election momentum cools, and ETF outflows, its price should quickly find some footing.
“Should Bitcoin’s robust support in the $87,000 zone hold, market dynamics suggest a potential rebound toward the $95,000 region,” she told DL News.
Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.