- Bitcoin options traders are betting on a massive price surge this month.
- March is set to be this year’s biggest options expiry.
- Bitcoin is down 25% from the height of the Trump rally.
Traders pile into bullish bets that Bitcoin will hit $120,000 at the end of March.
That’s according to options data from Deribit, which shows that more than two-thirds of traders are betting that Bitcoin will trade above $120,000 by March 28.
Bitcoin is trading at $83,000 and has crashed 12% in February.
A similar trend is seen on Derive, where analysts are seeing “strong demand for high-leverage calls” despite the market turmoil, said Sean Dawson, head of research at the options trading protocol.
“This indicates that traders are seeking upside exposure in the wake of the large price fluctuations,” Dawson wrote in a Tuesday blog.
The news comes as a combination of scandals, hacks, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty has pushed Bitcoin to its lowest level since November.
$9.7 billion
March is set to be the biggest options expiry of the year and the second-biggest of all time, with $9.7 billion in notional Bitcoin value set to expire.
Data from basedmoney.io shows a so-called max pain price of $85,000 for Bitcoin options expiring on March 28, referring to how low the price can go before the majority of traders essentially lose their bets.
Analysts say that Bitcoin’s price will recover. For instance, both Bernstein and Standard Chartered still see Bitcoin hit $200,000 over the next year or so.
But things might get worse before they get better.
On Monday, Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, said he expects Bitcoin to fall as low as $70,000 before it bounces back, as US President Donald Trump’s policies will likely devalue the dollar.
Once Bitcoin bounces back, it could reach $1 million before the end of Trump’s presidency, Hayes said.
Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.